IFS (Retd.) & Advisory Council
After the stigma of an impeachment process and liberal America’s relentless vilification of him, Trump may look at his India visit as a triumphal recognition of his stature as a world leader as mammoth crowds await to welcome him at Ahmedabad. It would be an ego boost for him. He would also have calculated that a celebratory India visit would gain him funds and support from the Indian diaspora in America.
Meanwhile, for PM Modi, the US President’s visit raises India’s stature as an interlocutor, both regionally and internationally. Opposition elements in India may denigrate the visit as event management by Modi, but our neighbors — Pakistan, China and others would not look at it so simplistically.
As regards tangibles, the first India-US 2+2 dialogue held in December 2019 yielded impressive results and these can be built upon during Trump’s visit. Earning more goodwill may not be measurable but this should result from the visit, with a positive fallout on relations in general.
Trump is no doubt more focused on trade issues than on strategic ones. His world view is that of a businessman focused on dealmaking. Yet, under his watch, India and the US have moved forward on strategic issues. These include development of the Indo-Pacific concept that positions India centrally in security issues pertaining to the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific; according India STA-1 status to facilitate transfer of defense technologies; signing of the Industrial Security Annexed that will potentially include India in the global supply chains feeding the US defense industry, linking of the Defense Innovation Units of both countries, building India’s capacities through transfer of high-end defense platforms, signing of COMCASA, and so on. But this is not enough. The US must be induced to participate meaningfully in the “Make in India” project in defence manufacturing.
India and the US have differed on trade issues for years, bilaterally and within the WTO. A mini trade deal expected to be signed during Trump’s visit will not materialize. It goes to India’s credit that even with the pressure of Trump’s visit it has not made costly concessions that would “impact the lives of millions of Indians and would have long-term consequences”. Trump, obsessed by winning on trade issues, has compromised by visiting India without a deal in the offing, but this is a temporary reprieve.